关键词: 先天性甲状腺功能减低症, 自回归移动平均模型, 预测, 新生儿

Abstract: Objective To analyze the feasibility of applying auto regressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) to predict the incidence of congenital hypothyroidism (CH) in Guangzhou,so as to provide references for the prevention and control of congenital hypothyroidism. Methods The incidence rate of CH in Guangzhou from 1991 to 2018 was collected,and the ARIMA model was established according to the CH incidence rate from 1991 to 2016.The ARIMA model was tested by comparing the predicted incidence and actual incidence in 2017-2018,and the trend of CH incidence in the next three years was predicted. Results The overall incidence of CH showed an upward trend from 1991 to 2018.ARIMA (0,1,0) was the optimal model based on 1991-2016 CH incidence rate,which was better fit the time trend of CH incidence.The maximum relative error between the predicted and actual incidence of CH in 2017-2018 was 7.9% in the model fitting,providing a relatively accurate prediction.The predicted CH incidence in 2019-2021 was 86.1 per 100 000 births,90.7 per 100 000 births and 94.3 per 100 000 births,respectively. Conclusion ARIMA (0,1,0) model has a good fitting effect on the trend of CH incidence and can be used for the prediction and dynamic analysis of CH incidence in Guangzhou.

Key words: congenital hypothyroidism, autoregressive integrated moving average model, prediction, neonates