关键词: 5岁以下儿童, 低体重, 海口市, Joinpoint回归模型

Abstract: Objective To analyze the change trend of low weight rate of children under 5 years old in Haikou, and to predict the incidence rate of the low birth weight in the next few years, so as to provide scientific basis for relevant departments to take health care measures for children under 5 years old. Methods Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of low body weight incidence rate in children under 5 years of age in Haikou from 2010to 2020. Thile the incidence rate of low weight children under 5 years old in Haikou from 2020 to 2025 was predicted by Grey Model(GM) (1,1). Results In 2010—2020 years, the incidence of low weight children in Haikou ranged from 1.42% to 3.42%, showing an increasing trend[APC＝5.54(95%CI:1.6~9.7,P=0.011)]. The incidence rate of low weight in Meilan and Qiongshan district was also increasing during the past years, while it increased first and then decreased in Longhua district, and the trend of incidence rate of low weight is not clear in Xiuying district. The results of GM(1,1) model showed that the incidence rate of low weight among children under 5 years old in Haikou in the next 5 years was 3.25%, 3.37%, 3.50%, 3.62% and 3.75%, respectively. Conclusions The change trends of the prevalence rates of low body weight of children under 5 years old are different in all administrative regions. It is predicted that the incidence of low body weight of children under 5 years old in Haikou City will be on the rise in the next few years. Relevant departments are suggested taking corresponding measures to prevent low body weight in children.

Key words: children under 5 years of age, low weight, Haikou City, Joinpoint regression model