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中国临床药理学与治疗学 ›› 2017, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (10): 1127-1132.

• 定量药理学 • 上一篇    下一篇

靶向药物全球同步研发设计中的统计学性能比较

王亚飞,陈 峰, 柏建岭,黄丽红,于 浩   

  1. 南京医科大学公共卫生学院,生物统计学系,南京 211166,江苏
  • 收稿日期:2017-05-22 修回日期:2017-09-19 出版日期:2017-10-26 发布日期:2017-11-13
  • 通讯作者: 于浩,女,教授,研究方向:新药临床试验中的统计理论和方法。 E-mail:njyuhao@vip.sina.com 柏建岭,男,博士,研究方向: 新药临床试验中的统计理论与方法。 E-mail:jbai@njmu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:王亚飞,男,硕士,研究方向:新药临床试验中的统计理论和方法。 E-mail:wyffight@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金(81773554,81473070);国家自然科学青年基金(81302512)

Statistical performance comparison of different simultaneous global development designs for targeted drugs

WANG Yafei, CHEN Feng, BAI Jianling, HUANG Lihong, YU Hao   

  1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, Jiangsu, China
  • Received:2017-05-22 Revised:2017-09-19 Online:2017-10-26 Published:2017-11-13

摘要:

目的: 探讨靶向药物全球同步研发项目中全随机设计和富集设计的统计学性能,以期为实际工作提供指导意见。方法: 采用蒙特卡罗模拟靶向药物全球同步研发设计临床数据,在不同的参数设置下比较全随机设计和富集设计的检验效能。结果: 当目标种族人群与非目标种族人群效应相等,靶向阳性与靶向阴性人群效应也相等时,相同分配样本量情况下全随机设计与富集设计的检验效能最高,经过筛选的富集设计检验效能最低;当靶向阴性人群效应较低时,相同分配样本量情况下富集设计的检验效能最高,全随机设计次之,经过筛选的富集设计检验效能最低;靶向阳性人群比例增大,检验效能随之增大。当目标种族人群效应较低时,其检验效能的结果与上述结果基本类似,略低于两种人群效应相等的结果。结论: 当有足够的证据表明靶向药物的疗效对靶点阳性人群疗效优于靶点阴性人群时,建议采用富集设计。当不能确定靶向药物对阴性人群是否有效或无可靠的靶点检测方法时,建议采用全随机设计。采用加权Z检验能够在本地临床试验(local clinical trials, LCT)样本量较小的情况下提供足够的检验效能来验证假设。

关键词: 靶向药物, 全球同步研发项目, 检验效能, 富集设计, 全随机设计

Abstract:

AIM: To evaluate the statistical performance of all-randomized design and enrichment design in simultaneous global development program for targeted drugs, and to provide a framework for the clinical practice. METHODS: Monte Carlo techniques were applied to simulate clinical data of simultaneous global development design for targeted drugs, and the power of all-randomized design and enrichment design was compared with different parameter settings.RESULTS:When the efficacy of non-targeted ethnic (NTE) patients and targeted ethnic (TE) patients, target positive and negative patients were equal, the power of all-randomized design and enrichment design with allocation was the highest, and the power of the enrichment design with screening was lower. When the target negative population had lower efficacy than the positive population, the enrichment design with allocation had the highest power, the second was all-randomized design, and the enrichment design with screening was the lowest. The power rose with the ratio of target positive population increased. When the efficacy of TE patients was lower than that of NTE patients, the results of power were almost the same with those in above, and the power was slightly lower. CONCLUSION: When there is sufficient evidence of a better effect on targeted positive patients than negative patients, the enrichment design is recommended. When researchers can't make sure that target drug is effective for marker-negative patients or not or there is not a reliable target diagnosis method, all-randomized design is recommended. And weighted Z test can provide enough power to verify the hypothesis when the sample size of local clinical trials is small.

Key words: targeted drugs, simultaneous global development program, power, enrichment design, all-randomized design

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