关键词: 功能性便秘, 学龄前儿童, 列线图, 风险预测

Abstract: Objective To explore the risk factors of functional constipation in preschoolers, and to establish a personalized risk prediction model.Methods Totally 108 preschoolers with functional constipation, who were admitted to the Children's Health Care Clinic of the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University from September 2020 to May 2021, were selected as study subjects. Meanwhile 324 healthy children who had normal physical examinations were enrolled in the control group. Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the influencing factors of functional constipation in preschoolers. Nomogram model was established by R software to predict the risk of functional constipation, and the model was evaluated using ROC curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.Results Maternal or parental history of constipation(OR=2.708, 11.493), picky eating (sometimes, often, always)(OR=4.176, 7.097, 9.204), bad defecation habit(OR=3.465), blaming children(OR=7.067), family conflict (sometimes, often) were risk factors (OR= 4.807, 6.543) were risk factors for functional constipation of children(P＜0.05). Children who are not irritable and the time of father-son interaction >3 h were protective factors of functional constipation in preschoolers (OR= 0.213, 0.107, P<0.05). The area under the curve of ROC was 0.893, the goodness-of-fit test showed that the model fit well (P=0.986), and the calibration curve of nomogram was a straight line with slope close to 1. Conclusion The risk prediction model based on genetic, children's living habits and social psychological factors is simple and intuitive, with good differentiation and accuracy, which is significant for identifying children at high risk of functional constipation and making targeted intervention measures.

Key words: functional constipation, preschoolers, nomogram, risk prediction