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中国临床药理学与治疗学 ›› 2021, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (12): 1400-1406.doi: 10.12092/j.issn.1009-2501.2021.12.009

• 临床药理学 • 上一篇    下一篇

应用蒙特卡洛模拟评价新生儿革兰阳性球菌晚发型败血症的药敏变迁

寇 晨,李兆娜,张亚南,高正平,张拓慧   

  1. 首都医科大学附属北京妇产医院新生儿科,北京 100026
  • 收稿日期:2021-06-02 修回日期:2021-09-06 出版日期:2021-12-26 发布日期:2022-01-07
  • 作者简介:寇晨,男,本科,副主任医师,研究方向:新生儿危急重症。 E-mail: kcviva@ccmu.edu.cn

Application of Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the changes of drug sensitivity in late-onset sepsis of gram-positive cocci in neonates

KOU Chen, LI Zhaona, ZHANG Yanan, GAO zhengping, ZHANG Tuohui   

  1. Department of Neonatology, Beijing Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100026, China
  • Received:2021-06-02 Revised:2021-09-06 Online:2021-12-26 Published:2022-01-07

摘要: 目的:通过应用蒙特卡罗模拟,监测新生儿革兰阳性球菌晚发型败血症药敏试验中最小抑菌浓度(MIC)的变化情况,通过计算累计反应分数(cumulative fraction of response, CFR)评价本中心细菌万古霉素耐药性的变化趋势,分析其潜在诱导细菌耐药性的可能,从而在临床工作中降低细菌耐药的发生。方法:本研究回顾性调查2016年至2019年间北京妇产医院新生儿重症监护病房中新生儿革兰阳性球菌晚发型败血症患儿的基本信息、病原菌种类及药敏结果,按年份分为4组,应用水晶球软件进行蒙特卡罗模拟计算每年敏感抗生素(万古霉素)对革兰阳性球菌的CFR。结果:2016年至2019年新生儿革兰阳性球菌晚发型败血症共58例,每年病原菌检出的数量无明显变化趋势,每年发病人群无统计学差异;其中检出数量最多的病原菌前三位分别为表皮葡萄球菌31株(53.5%),屎肠球菌9株(15.5%)和粪肠球菌6株(10.3%);药敏试验显示表皮葡萄球菌、屎肠球菌和粪肠球菌对万古霉素、利奈唑胺耐药率均为0%;利用蒙特卡罗模拟法计算2016年至2019年期间万古霉素对革兰阳性球菌的CFR分别为82%、88.72%、81.73%、78.53%,整体变化呈下降趋势。结论:应用蒙特卡罗模拟法以药敏试验为标准,通过CFR即可反映细菌耐药性的变化,同时对目前治疗方案给予评价,临床应予以重视。

关键词: 革兰阳性球菌, 晚发型败血症, 药物敏感, 蒙特卡洛模拟

Abstract: AIM: Through the Monte Carlo simulation to monitor the change of MIC in late-onset sepsis of gram-positive cocci in neonates, through the cumulative fraction of response to evaluate the changing trend of bacterial resistance in our center and analyze the possibility of inducing drug resistance of bacterial, to reduce the occurrence of bacterial drug resistance in clinical work.  METHODS: This study retrospectively investigated the basic information, pathogen species and drug sensitivity results of neonatal late-onset sepsis of gram-positive cocci in Neonatal Intensive Care Units of Beijing Maternity Hospital from 2016 to 2019, and divided them into four groups by year. Crystal ball software was used to calculate the annual CFR of sensitive antibiotics (Vancomycin) against the gram-positive cocci by Monte Carlo simulation. RESULTS: From 2016 to 2019, there were 58 cases of late-onset sepsis caused by gram-positive cocci in neonates, and the number of pathogens detected each year showed no significant change, and there was no statistical difference in the affected population each year. Among them, the top three were 31 strains of Staphylococcus epidermidis (53.5%), 9 strains of Enterococcus faecium (15.5%), and 6 strains of Enterococcus faecalis (10.3%). Drug sensitivity tests showed that the resistance rates of Staphylococcus epidermidis, Enterococcus faecium and Enterococcus faecalis to Vancomycin and Linezolid were 0%. The CFR of Vancomycin against gram-positive cocci from 2016 to 2019 calculated by Monte Carlo simulation were 82%, 88.72%, 81.73% and 78.53%, respectively, which showed a downward trend. CONCLUSION: By using Monte Carlo simulation method, CFR can reflect the change of bacterial drug resistance with drug sensitivity test as the standard, and evaluate the current treatment plan, which should be paid attention to in clinical work.

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