Abstract: Objective To predict the accidental injury death rate of children under 5 years old in Xi′an according to the data from 2006 to 2015 using gray model(1,1) , in order to provide theoretical basis for the corresponding countermeasures. Method The general accidental death situation of children in Xi′an was described, and the gray model(1,1) was used to predict accidental injury death rate.Results There were more accidental injury death cases of urban children.Accidental asphyxia, traffic accidents were the first two causes.Gray model(1,1) results showed that the accidental injury death rate decreased year by year.The death of boys was more stable, while girls′ death rate decreased.The incidence of asphyxia increased and the incidence of traffic accident death was relatively stable.Conclusion In the next three years, the accidental injury death rate in Xi′an generally shows a decreasing trend.

Key words: accidental injury, death, gray model GM (1,1), prediction

摘要： 目的 对西安市2006-2015年5岁以下儿童意外伤害死亡发生率进行模型拟合和预测,为制订相应预防和控制对策提供理论依据。方法 描述西安市儿童意外伤害死亡的一般情况,应用灰色模型GM(1,1)进行拟合和预测。结果 西安市城市儿童意外伤害死亡较多,意外窒息、交通意外居死因前两位。应用GM(1,1)对未来3年儿童意外伤害死亡发生率预测,结果显示总意外伤害死亡发生率逐年下降;男童死亡率较为平稳;女童死亡率逐年下降;窒息死亡率上升,交通意外死亡率较为平稳。结论 未来3年西安市儿童意外伤害死亡发生率总体呈下降趋势。

关键词: 意外伤害, 死亡, 灰色模型GM(1,1), 预测