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中国临床药理学与治疗学 ›› 2017, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (4): 434-438.

• 定量药理学 • 上一篇    下一篇

临床试验中组间不同删失率对疗效评价的影响

陈梦锴,柏建岭,魏永越,黄丽红,赵 杨,于 浩   

  1. 南京医科大学公共卫生学院,生物统计学系,南京 211166,江苏
  • 收稿日期:2016-12-22 修回日期:2017-02-21 出版日期:2017-04-26 发布日期:2017-04-26
  • 通讯作者: 于浩,女,博士,教授,硕士生导师,研究方向:新药临床试验中的统计理论与方法。 Tel:025-86868434 E-mail:njyuhao@vip.sina.com
  • 作者简介:陈梦锴,男,硕士,研究方向:新药临床试验中的统计理论与方法。 Tel:15651725532 E-mail:cmk199@live.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金 ( 81273184 ) ; 国家自然科学基金青年基金( 81302512)

Effect of difference censored rates between groups in clinical trails

CHEN Mengkai, BAI Jianling, WEI Yongyue, HUANG Lihong, ZHAO Yang, YU Hao   

  1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, Jiangsu, China
  • Received:2016-12-22 Revised:2017-02-21 Online:2017-04-26 Published:2017-04-26

摘要:

目的: 探讨临床试验中组间不同删失比例对疗效评价的统计学性质的影响。方法: 采用蒙特卡罗方法模拟两组生存数据,在不同删失比例的水平下,评价log-rank检验和Cox比例风险模型的假设检验和参数估计。结果: 当两组删失比例相等时,I类错误最小,对风险比的估计值最准确,且检验效能也相对较高;在两组删失率较低,且删失率接近时,假设检验的结果可信度更高;但当两组删失率相差越来越大时,I类错误失控,且把握度亦受影响。结论: 临床试验中运用生存分析,确保足够样本量的情况下删失率应控制在30%以内,并且建议两组删失率之差不要超过10%。

关键词: 临床试验, 删失率, 生存分析, 统计学性质

Abstract:

AIM: To explore the influence on the results of survival analysis when the censored rates are different between the groups. METHODS: Monte-Carlo method was used to simulate a two-group survival data in clinical trials and to estimate the type I error and the test power of the log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards models in different scenario of different censored rates between groups. RESULTS: If censored rates were equal in both test group and control group, the type I errors were well controlled, the estimates of HR were most accurate, and the power was relatively high. If total censored rates were lower than 30%, the lower censored rate difference between two groups, the higher reliability hypothesis testing results. CONCLUSION: In clinical trials, by ensuring enough sample size, the total censored rate should be controlled within 30%, and the difference of censored rate between the two groups less than 10% was suggested.

Key words: clinical trial, censored ratio, survival analysis, statistical property

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