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Chinese Journal of Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics ›› 2025, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (7): 942-949.doi: 10.12092/j.issn.1009-2501.2025.07.009

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Application of the Bayesian mixture model based on a principal stratum strategy in clinical trials

WU Yiwen1, SUN Yue1, LU Zixuan1, PAN Jiahe2, YU Er1, WO Hongmei2, TANG Shaowen3, ZHAO Yang1, DAI Juncheng1, YI Honggang1   

  1. 1 Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, Jiangsu, China; 2 Department of Social Security, School of Health Policy and Management, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, Jiangsu, China; 3 Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, Jiangsu, China 
  • Received:2025-02-24 Revised:2025-05-15 Online:2025-07-26 Published:2025-07-02

Abstract:

AIM: To evaluate the application effectiveness of a Bayesian mixture model based on the principal stratum strategy for estimating the complier average causal effect (CACE) in clinical trials with non-compliance. METHODS: Using a non-inferiority randomized controlled trial investigating a novel drug for primary type 2 diabetes mellitus (non-inferiority margin: -0.4) as a case study, the primary analysis applied a Bayesian mixture model under the monotonicity assumption to estimate CACE of between-group differences in glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) changes within the compliant stratum, followed by non-inferiority testing. Sensitivity analyses included a Bayesian mixture model relaxing the monotonicity assumption and comparing results with per-protocol set (PPS) analysis. RESULTS: In the primary analysis, the posterior mean of CACE for HbA1c change in the compliant stratum was 0.081%, with a one-sided 97.5% credible interval lower bound of -0.124, exceeding the non-inferiority margin (-0.4%), supporting the non-inferiority efficacy of the novel drug in the compliant stratum (P(H1|Data) = 1). Consistent findings were observed in PPS analyses (estimated effect: 0.136%; one-sided 97.5% credible interval lower bound: -0.069%), further validating methodological robustness. CONCLUSION: In clinical trials with noncompliance as an intercurrent event, the Bayesian mixture model under the principal stratum strategy effectively adjusts for compliance-related bias and yields conservative, robust estimates of causal effects, supporting its value in efficacy evaluation under complex compliance scenarios.

Key words: Bayesian statistics, Mixture models, Principal stratum strategy, Non-inferiority trials, Noncompliance

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