关键词: 意外伤害, 死亡, 灰色模型GM(1,1), 预测

Abstract: Objective To predict the accidental injury death rate of children under 5 years old in Xi′an according to the data from 2006 to 2015 using gray model(1,1) , in order to provide theoretical basis for the corresponding countermeasures. Method The general accidental death situation of children in Xi′an was described, and the gray model(1,1) was used to predict accidental injury death rate.Results There were more accidental injury death cases of urban children.Accidental asphyxia, traffic accidents were the first two causes.Gray model(1,1) results showed that the accidental injury death rate decreased year by year.The death of boys was more stable, while girls′ death rate decreased.The incidence of asphyxia increased and the incidence of traffic accident death was relatively stable.Conclusion In the next three years, the accidental injury death rate in Xi′an generally shows a decreasing trend.

Key words: accidental injury, death, gray model GM (1,1), prediction