Abstract: Objective To analyze the change trend of low weight rate of children under 5 years old in Haikou, and to predict the incidence rate of the low birth weight in the next few years, so as to provide scientific basis for relevant departments to take health care measures for children under 5 years old. Methods Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of low body weight incidence rate in children under 5 years of age in Haikou from 2010to 2020. Thile the incidence rate of low weight children under 5 years old in Haikou from 2020 to 2025 was predicted by Grey Model(GM) (1,1). Results In 2010—2020 years, the incidence of low weight children in Haikou ranged from 1.42% to 3.42%, showing an increasing trend[APC＝5.54(95%CI:1.6~9.7,P=0.011)]. The incidence rate of low weight in Meilan and Qiongshan district was also increasing during the past years, while it increased first and then decreased in Longhua district, and the trend of incidence rate of low weight is not clear in Xiuying district. The results of GM(1,1) model showed that the incidence rate of low weight among children under 5 years old in Haikou in the next 5 years was 3.25%, 3.37%, 3.50%, 3.62% and 3.75%, respectively. Conclusions The change trends of the prevalence rates of low body weight of children under 5 years old are different in all administrative regions. It is predicted that the incidence of low body weight of children under 5 years old in Haikou City will be on the rise in the next few years. Relevant departments are suggested taking corresponding measures to prevent low body weight in children.

Key words: children under 5 years of age, low weight, Haikou City, Joinpoint regression model

摘要： 目的 对海口市及其各区5岁以下儿童低体重患病率变化趋势进行分析,预测未来5年海口市5岁以下儿童低体重患病率,为相关部门对5岁以下儿童采取保健措施提供科学依据。方法 本文采用Joinpoint回归模型分析2010—2020年海口市以及各区5岁以下儿童低体重患病率变化趋势;采用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型对海口市5岁以下儿童低体重2021—2025年的患病率进行预测。结果 2010—2020年海口市儿童低体重患病率在1.42%~3.42%之间,总体呈逐年单调上升趋势[APC＝5.54(95%CI:1.6~9.7,P=0.011)];其中美兰区和琼山区低体重患病率同样呈单调上升趋势;龙华区则呈先上升后下降趋势,拐点出现在2015年;秀英区低体重患病率无明显趋势。预测结果显示,未来5年内海口市5岁以下儿童低体重患病率分别为3.25%,3.37%,3.50%,3.62%,3.75%。 结论 未来5年海口市5岁以下儿童低体重发生率整体上呈现上升趋势,而既往年份各区患病率变化趋势有所差异,相关部门应该采取有针对性措施,以预防儿童低体重的发生。

关键词: 5岁以下儿童, 低体重, 海口市, Joinpoint回归模型