Abstract:

AIM: To establish a model capable of predicting the prognosis of patients with acute organophosphorus pesticide poisoning to more accurately forecast their prognosis and risk of mortality. METHODS: A total of 75 patients with organophosphorus poisoning who received treatment at the First Affiliated Hospital of Wannan Medical University (Yijishan Hospital) from January 2022 to December 2024 were included in the study. Single-factor Cox analysis and t test/Chi-square test were used to identify characteristics influencing patient prognosis (P<0.05), followed by LASSO Cox analysis to construct a prognosis prediction score (Score), which was validated. The Score and statistically significant characteristics were then used to establish a nomogram model. RESULTS: Through univariate Cox analysis, t test/Chi-square test and LASSO Cox analysis, a prognostic prediction score was established: Score = 0.0752×age (Age) + 0.0120×creatinine (CRE) ? 0.0003×cholinesterase (CHE). The AUC of the Score for organophosphorus pesticide poisoning patients was 0.917. A Nomogram model was further constructed to predict patient prognosis, with an AUC of 0.924 and a C-index of 0.886, demonstrating good discriminatory and calibration performance. CONCLUSION: Considering the significant variability in prognosis among patients with acute organophosphorus pesticide poisoning, establishing and validating a high-performance Nomogram model can provide individualised prognosis prediction and risk assessment for patients, and further guide clinical treatment decisions.

Key words: acute organophosphorus pesticide poisoning, nomogram model, prognosis, prediction